(Editor’s Note:  The DG staff will be taking the day off tomorrow, so no Friday post.  We’ll see you back here Tuesday, September 5^th!)

RADIO . . . THE LAST DINOSAUR:  Everyone but those currently working in the Radio industry knows AM/FM is on a slow and steady downward spiral.  The artists and songs broadcasters play are as popular as ever, but streaming is simply a better method of music delivery.  Yet the broadcasters stubbornly hang on to their core narrative about 93% reach, #1 in car, millennials’ love of DJs, blah, blah, blah.  So where’s the truth in this discussion?  A good place to start might be in the attached Variety article, which summarizes a research study published by NYU’s Steinhart Music Business School.  The focus of this study is how Gen Z (those born after 1995) consume music, which is far different from every other generation before them.  The headline stat is that Gen Z listening to AM/FM radio has declined by 50% from 2005 to 2016 – which coincides exactly with the Age of Streaming.  So today’s under 22 crowd listens to far less radio . . . period.  And while broadcasters might shrug this off as a “teen problem” right now, this group will be in their mid-30s in just a dozen years.  According to Variety “this report makes a global-warming-level case for the terrestrial radio industry to upgrade or face obsolescence.”  This is a brutally honest but accurate assessment.  Whether the broadcaster will admit it or not I predict that Radio, like the last dinosaur to ever roam the earth, will be extinct within the next 30-40 years.

TRITON’S JUNE RATINGS:  Yesterday Triton released its Webcast Metrics Ratings for June.  Compared to May streaming was down slightly MoM, which is the normal season adjustment since the summer months tend to have lower listening levels than spring/fall.  YoY total AAS (Average Active Sessions) was +14%, which is still impressive growth.  It’s appears that Spotify’s growth is starting to cool, as its listening begins to normalize with the industry’s seasonal trends.  Also note Triton doesn’t differentiate between free ad-supported listening and subscription listening with no ads.  So Spotify’s “addressable” audience level is actually only 50-60% of what you’re seeing on the graph below.  RAIN has all the details in attached link.  Enjoy!

MAKING 5:00A YOUR BEST HOUR:  I’ll admit it . . . I’m a notoriously early riser.  Between being blessed with the early bird gene and genuinely loving my job, I can get up without an alarm clock on most days.  Over the years people have asked me why I do this.  The practical answer is that getting up an hour earlier than everyone else gives you a competitive advantage in the business word.  Assuming the average American works 235 days a year, one extra hour per day gives you over 29 extra days’ worth of work time annually to out hustle the competition.  On a more physiological level, having some quiet time alone to get yourself organized for the day just makes people less stressed and more balanced.  Either way, getting up is a trained habit which can benefit your entire life.  And that’s not just my opinion.  I recently came across the attached Inc.com article, which not only supports my belief about the benefits of getting up early, but also provides tips on how to become an early riser.  So if you’ve ever dreamed of unlocking your inner early bird this article is for you.  Maybe give it a read first thing tomorrow morning?!?

Have a great Thursday (and long holiday weekend) guys.  Be back next Tuesday!

GOOGLE PLAYS PEEK-A-BOO WITH AD FRAUD:  On Friday Google announced a new policy of offering refunds to brands for fraudulent ad delivery from network inventory purchased via AdX.  This sounds noble enough, but there are a few strings attached.  First, brands must only run impressions on networks who have agreed to refunding through DBM (Google’s DoubleClick Bid Manager).  And second, Google alone will determine if a delivered impression was fraudulent or not, thus triggering the refund.  So Google is controlling all ends of this process by gate keeping which networks make it into the “refundable” platform and then play judge and jury on what clears as a legitimate impression.  Does this sound fair and transparent to you?  And oh, there’s one other aspect to the timing of this announcement.  You may think I’m crazy to suggest this, but I believe Google buried this announcement on Friday because the real story is that there’s still a ton of fraudulent impressions running through AdX.  By just focusing on solving the problem Google is deftly avoiding having to directly address the real issue in the first place.  Pretty tricky, I’d say!

SOCIAL COMMERCE?  NOT SO MUCH:  There’s no denying the user scale and time spent on the major Social platforms.  Between Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and Snapchat Social has evolved into the new way to stay connected and share experiences.  But how is Social working as a platform to actually sell products the way other digital publishers do?  According to eMarketer the big Social publishers still haven’t cracked the code.  45% of Social users have never made a purchase on any one of the platforms, with Snapchat having the worst performing buy through rate at just 1%.  Keep in mind, that’s not just 1% of users making a purchase through a particular ad or of a given brand, that’s 1% who have ever purchased anything on Snap.  Or to put it another way, 99% of Snapchat’s users have never purchased anything through the site.  These stats reinforce the conventional wisdom that the Socials are good as branding vehicles but don’t drive actual sales uplift.

STREAMING CONTINUES TO SAVE THE DAY:  In the ultimate case of irony the Music industry, which was once being devoured by free distribution of content on the internet, is now being saved by that very same technology.  The latest evidence of this turnaround comes from a new Goldman Sachs forecast in the attached Music Business Worldwide link, which predicts streaming revenue for the Global Music Industry to soar to $28B by 2030, which represents +500% growth over the next 13 years.  By that time streaming will make up 80% of total Music revenues.  The primary benefactor of streaming’s revenue spike will be the music rights holders (aka the major Labels), who are estimated to be paid 55-60% of all the royalty revenue.  So does that leave 40-45% for the artists, songwriters, band managers, promoters, etc.?  Hmmm . . . at least someone is getting paid in this new music ecosystem.

Have a great Wednesday guys!

MORE IN-APP USAGE STATS:  Last week I featured a post about the Top 10 Apps (by device penetration) in the US according to comScore.  Now Inside Radio is showing a slightly different data cut of in-app time spent by content type in the attached link and in the chart below.  Despite FB’s continued domination within Social, it’s good to see in-app time spent with Music going up.  The reason for this is simple – Music is one of the very few things people do for long periods of time in an app environment. Music is that one constant companion you’ll take with you as you do other things in your life.  This creates average session lengths of 45 minutes to an hour – when’s the last time you spent 45 minutes in a row on Instagram?  (As an aside, did you notice how hard Inside Radio tried not mention Pandora in this article?  Despite the fact that Pandora is a Top 10 publisher for app penetration there’s no mention.  Instead they focused on iHeart being “among the top 50 apps for adults 35 to 49 years old”.  Nice job of selective reporting IR!)

SOFTER BTS/BTC AD SPENDING:  According to Kantar US ad spending during the critical Back-To-School/Back-To-Campus window if off to a sluggish start for 2017.  For a level set 2016 was a banner year with BTS/BTC spending surging +15% to $284M – so the industry is up against a pretty tough comp.  According to Inside Radio in the attached link and the graph below, 2017’s estimates are expected to settle in the +3% range.  It’s important to note yesterday’s report only counts July, August and forward business already placed for September – so an in-month Sept spending spike could skew the numbers up.  The biggest YoY decliner categories are Telcos like Sprint and AT&T, and B&M retailers like Target and Staples.  This early forecast seems to comport with an overall cooling of Retail spending in 2017.  For all of our sake let’s hope things heat up again for holiday prime time!

WINTER IS COMING FOR THE AGENCIES;  2017 is shaping up as a “flat is the new up” year for ad agencies and their parent holding companies.  On the surface the drop in agency top line revenue appears to be tied to softness in major categories like Auto, CPG, and Retail.  But there’s a bigger structural problem going on within the agency megaplex, which is explained through the example of WPP in the attached WSJ article.  Here’s what’s going on.  Over the past 4-5 years agencies have been on a buying spree of smaller creative shops and AdTech specialists to give themselves a “full array” portfolio which is essential to compete in today’s digital media world.  Visualize these specialists as rows on a grid.  Then keep in mind the holding companies must constantly sub-divide their agencies to create new ones in order to have competitive separation – can’t have the same agency handling Subaru and Honda, right?  Consider these different agencies the columns on our imaginary grid.  The result of these two factors is a confusing-at-best matrix of entities within each of the four major HCs.  Each group tends to operate autonomously and run its own P&L.  This drives more add-on billing upcharges (which clients loath), and a lack of resource/data sharing which creates inefficiency.  This setup is what HCs and their agencies are struggling to monetize.  My guess is this problem will only get worse before it’s solved.

Have a great Tuesday guys!

SPOTIFY INKS WARNER DEAL:  There have been some recent developments from Spotify as they crawl towards an attempted IPO later this year.  First the news from Friday.  RAIN is reporting that Spotify has finalized the last of its major label royalties deals with Warner Music Group.  The new deal sets royalty payments from Spotify to all WMG artists.  This was a necessary step for an IPO since it gives Spotify secure access to music rights at a predictable royalty rate.  Deal terms aren’t public, but historically label-direct licensing is usually paid at 2-3x the CRB’s per song royalty rate.

DIRECT LISTING TALKS GET SERIOUS, AND SERIOUSLY WEIRD:  In related news, Spotify has been holding private meetings with the SEC on their plan to take the company public through a “direct listing”, instead of a traditional brokered IPO.  At Spotify’s current $13B valuation this would be the largest direct listing ever on the NYSE and would be the first-ever for a tech IPO.  So what would a direct list IPO mean?  It’s complicated so I’ll give you a passage straight from the attached Musically link . . . “A direct listing would not issue any new shares or raise any new capital – but it would allow existing shareholders to trade their shares in the open market. This means anyone can buy shares and this can have a knock-on effect in that the company going for a direct listing cannot control the price of the IPO (the laws of supply and demand take precedence); it could also mean the price fluctuates wildly.”  My read on this is most investment banks aren’t confident Spotify can get enough buy-in from institutional lenders at a $13B valuation, so they’re trying this back door method to go public.  Buckle your seat belts for this one.

THE NETWORKS STRIKE BACK:  Last Tuesday I featured a story about NBCUniversal’s dominance during this year’s TV Upfront buying season.  But since NBC is carrying a heavyweight sports schedule in 2018 including the Winter Olympics, Super Bowl and World Cup, you had to wonder if their success was the exception compared to the other networks.  But as it turns out the entire Upfront market was healthier this year.  This success can be traced to two factors.  The first issue of brand safety is well documented.  During the Spring brands became aware of, and then squeamish about, what content their ads were being placed next to online, and are now flocking back to Network TV’s safe harbor.  The second reason for TV’s upfront surge has to do with data.  Not only are the networks getting better at using data to target individual households (aka addressable TV), now they’re making it easier to buy the data through a joint venture called OpenAP – a collective DMP between the major networks which allows brands to buy from one data pool instead of having to set up separate arrangements with each network.  Although industry-wide billing numbers aren’t finalized yet, AdWeek has details on how the networks fared in the attached link.  All in, it was a pretty impressive digital-esque performance by the biggest traditional media channel of all.

Have a great Monday guys!

WHEN SHORTER ISN’T NECESSARILY BETTER:  So is shorter better when it comes to creative length for digital audio/video ad products?  The current media zeitgeist says yes, as digital publishers and even broadcasters are pushing for ever shortening ad units – remember Fox’s debut of :06 TV ads two weeks ago?  But is there actual proof that shorter is somehow better?  According to Pandora the answer to that question isn’t so black and white.  In the attached AdWeek article Pandora’s SVP of Ad Product Strategy Lizzie Widhelm revealed results from unit length testing the streamer has been conducting.  The results were decidedly mixed.  In some cases :30 audio ads performed better than :10s on brand recall, but then the :10s drove more time spent on brands’ landing pages than the :30s.  So what does this mean?  My interpretation is that one size doesn’t fit all when comes to ad length.  Different campaigns, with unique KPIs and target demos, must use a customized blend of unit lengths to achieve optimal results.  This might be helpful intel for brands who feel compelled to use shorter creative just to stay up with an industry trend.

THE TOP 10 MOST INSTALLED APPS:  With 57% of all digital time in the US now being spent in-app the top Apps are more ubiquitous now than ever before.  So it’s timely that comScore is out with a ranking of the Top 10 Apps based on their install penetration, as noted in the attached ReCode link and in the graphic below.  Here are some top line observations . . . 3 of the 10 are Social (Facebook, Instagram, and Snapchat), 2 are Communication (FB Messenger and Gmail), 2 are Content (YouTube/video and Pandora/music), 2 are Information (Google Search and Google Maps), and 1 is to download more apps (Google Play).  It’s also interesting to note that 8 of the 10 are owned by the duopoly of Facebook and Google, with Pandora and Snapchat as the only independents.  And all 10 are publicly owned California companies.  Not sure what that says about us, except that we love our apps from the West Coast.  Enjoy!

INFORMATION = POWER:  The New Yorker is out with a fascinating article about how today’s tech heavyweights are using the power of the internet to shape our entire society.  (Weekend read warning – this one’s a really long mind bender.)  The central theme of the article is the idea that those who control the flow of information have the ability to control what happens in our country, even down to electing our Presidents.  The New Yorker defines control in two way.  First, what’s being consumed – they theorize that even the tragic story of the killing of Cecil the lion in 2015 eventually became a way for digital publishers to drive web traffic.  And second, that the data behind online traffic is actually more important to tech companies than their primary products/services – think of Google as actually being in the data extraction business instead of Search or AdTech.  Caught in the middle of this vice grip are the artists and creators whose original content is being commoditized and distributed by companies they have no relationship with or financial stake in.  Before you read this piece ask yourself the article’s title, “Who owns the internet?”  And then ask yourself the same question after you’ve read it.

Have a great Friday (and weekend) guys!

IF YOU CAN’T BEAT ‘EM, GANG UP ON ‘EM:  Big news in the eCommerce-sphere yesterday with the announcement that Walmart and Google are entering a partnership to compete with Amazon for connected home purchases.  The idea is brilliantly simple – Walmart will begin fulfilling orders placed on Google Home devices, exactly the way Amazon fulfills its own Echo purchases.  Although Google Home trails Echo for in-home penetration the market for voice-activated digital assistants in just starting to heat up.  Google has the hardware and back-end tech, but they don’t have warehouses with a gazillion products ready to ship.  That’s where Walmart comes in.  Over the past few years Walmart has gotten much better at instant-ship-anything-to-anywhere eCommerce to compete with Amazon.  And now they’ll have Google Home to help drive those purchases.

NO SOLUTIONS (YET) FOR VOICE-BASED SEARCH:  In a recent survey of client-side digital marketing teams, the research firm BrightEdge is reporting a disconnect between what’s coming and how marketers are preparing for it.  The what’s coming is voice-enablement in tech – according to BrightEdge 31% of survey respondents say Voice is the “next big thing” in the idustry.  Yet within that same group 66% say they have no plans to begin preparing for Voice integration into Search.  This seems like sort of a head-in-the-sand disconnect, so what gives?  My guess is that marketers don’t have a clear understanding of how Siri or Alexa choose a certain piece of content as the response to users’ searches.  And without this understanding there’s no real road map for solving the problem.  I also predict Google, who has the most skin in the Search game, will play a large role is setting search standards on voice platforms.  More to come, I’m sure.

INSPIRATION THROUGH THE TELEPHONE:  If you’re a regular reader you know home much I love people who’ve made a significant commitment to our world by working hard and overcoming adversity.  That’s why I’d like to share the attached LinkedIn Pulse story about Alexander Graham Bell.  You may remember the name from your elementary school days as the inventor of the telephone.  But the story behind the invention is even more remarkable.  Bell didn’t set out to invent the telephone.  He was trying to solve a different problem of enabling deaf people to hear sounds through a technology.  He endured some epic failures and nearly worked himself to death in the process, but ended up created something unexpected that changed the way mankind communicates to this very day.  Of all the words of wisdom from AGB, my favorite is this . . . “A person, as a general rule, owes very little to what he or she is born with – they are what they make of themselves.”  So what are you going to make of yourself today?!?

Have a great Thursday guys!

PITCH-A-PALOOZA IS THE NEW NORMAL:  Can you remember the good old days of Fall 2015?  Everything seemed so quiet and peaceful, and then a monster called Pitch-A-Palooza showed up.  In the Oct’15-Mar’16 period 26 national advertisers went through full agency reviews, with the vast majority of those clients eventually changing AORs.  Nothing like that had happened before, so it was viewed as a “once in a generation” occurrence.  But guess what . . . according to the attached AdWeek link it’s beginning to look like near-constant agency turnover is becoming the new normal.  So why are clients changing their agencies more often these days?  It’s probably a combination of three things.  First, with all the transparency problems related to agencies’ billable services clients are more distrustful then before – and if you don’t trust your agency you’re more likely to find a new one.  Second, the pace of digital innovation is speeding up – so clients suffering from FOMO are more likely to be lured to new agencies with shiny new innovation toys.  And third, clients are now more likely to bring data and programmatic services in house – and the best way to decide if they should in-house marketing functions is to price/capabilities shop by doing an agency review.  Regardless of the reason, the acceleration of agency turnover is creating chaos for agencies and their media partners who must to react to this constantly changing landscape.

COULD JEEP BE GOING BEHIND THE GREAT WALL?:  If you’re familiar with the Auto sector you know that FCA (the parent company which owns Fiat, Jeep, Dodge, and Chrysler) has been passed around like a joint over the last 20 years with numerous buyouts, mergers, etc..  Now there’s word of a potential new suitor which could add another chapter to this saga.  This time it’s Great Wall Motor Co. (yes, they’re a real Chinese OEM), who’s showing interest in buying Jeep from FCA.  There’s no doubt about the value of Jeep as a global brand.  In fact, there’s a consensus in the financial markets that Jeep as a stand-alone entity is worth about 20% more than when it’s embedded in the entire FCA family.  So would FCA spin off Jeep to Great Wall at a nice premium and then shut down the rest of the brands?  It’s a crazy idea to consider given that Dodge and Chrysler are such legacy brands in the US.  But the same could have been said for Pontiac, Saab and Oldsmobile a few years back, and you don’t see those guys around anymore.  AutoNews.com has a solid write up of the current situation, and the prospects of Great Wall actually being able to pull off a Jeep acquisition.

A TOTAL ROYALTIES ECLIPSE:  Just went you thought eclipse-mania was gone for another 50 years comes one more obscure fact.  It turns out that one song above all others was really popular on Monday.  Of course I’m talking about Bonnie’s Tyler’s 80’s hit Total Eclipse of the Heart.  According to the attached Forbes link the song had a one-day surge on platforms like YouTube and Pandora.  In fact, the play stats in the chart below map exactly to the peak eclipse-viewing time.  Beyond the novelty of the song with this astronomical occurrence, this example demonstrates the power of music to bond us during collective experiences like what happened on Monday.  So who’s working on a song for Leap Day 2020?!?

Have a great Wednesday guys!

LET THE BRAINWASHING CONTINUE:  Nielsen is out with another propaganda piece about how AM/FM radio still effectively reaches millennials.  The gist of their research in the attached RAIN article is that the number of millennials listening to radio every week has remained steady at about 71-72M for the past several years.  But that’s not the headline I see.  In the graph below the number which jumps off the page is Streaming’s millennial reach, which has grown to 48M – that’s two-thirds of the AM/FM number!  The sheer fact that there’s parity between these two numbers proves that millennials are closer than ever to crossing the digital divide into streaming at the expense of radio.  Keep in mind an individual can be counted in both stats if they listen to any amount of terrestrial radio and streaming in the same week (which most people do), so the real test of AM/FM’s strength with millennials is in the Time Spent Listening.  I wonder what Nielsen’s AM/FM TSL numbers look like for millennial listeners?  My guess is that it’s dropping quickly as millennials migrate to streaming.  Maybe that’s the real story Nielsen should be covering, instead of clinging to Radio’s reach life preserver.

HOLIDAY’17, BY THE NUMBERS:  Last Friday eMarketer released its forecast of Retail sales for Holiday’17.  The overall estimates look positive – calling for +3.1% YoY growth compared to +2.9% in 2016.  The engine for this growth is (surprise!) eCommerce, with an expected +16.6% surge YoY.  If those numbers hold true eCommerce will comprise 11.5% of total holiday sales – still a minority of the spending, but it’s starting to become a significant slice of the total pie.  It’s also worth noting that holiday sales as a % of annual Retail sales is still declining slightly to 18.4% of the annual total.  This is probably due to early-season sales incentives in October (or even September!) pulling purchases forward from the traditional Nov-Dec time frame.  My only request is that we get through Labor Day without seeing any holiday ads this year!

GIVING CREDIT WHERE IT’S DUE:  Finally today, I know I regularly criticize Network TV as a legacy video platform with eroding ratings and revenue, but even I need to tip my hat at what NBCUniversal has just pulled off through the leadership of Linda Yaccarino.  All told NBCU has raked in $6.5B (and counting) in upfront spending commitments across their network family and digital extensions.  Granted, their sales team is benefiting from a once-in-a-generation ratings trifecta with the Winter Olympics, Super Bowl, and World Cup all airing on the same network in 2018.  But these products don’t drive revenue by themselves, you have to actually convert the sales.  Based on the attached AdWeek link Ms. Yaccarino and team are doing just that.  And the recipe for their success looks an awful lot like how the top digital publishers’ approach sales.  Start with scale, use data to deliver the right audience as efficiently as possible, elevate brand relationships to content partnerships, and prove attribution on the back end.  The interview is an inspiring read, and really tells the story of a network sales org which has truly transformed itself to compete on today’s media battlefield.

Have a great Tuesday guys!

SEARCH IN A “ZERO UI” WORLD:  As Voice begins to replace Touch as the primary input method for tech, the UI (User Interface) will undoubtedly change.  The golden rule in tech is to be as simple as possible with a “one screen UI”, where users can just touch and go.  But as voice-activated devices become more prevalent the trend is moving towards “zero UI” where nothing is ever visually displayed.  You can imagine how drastically this change will affect Search advertising?  For starters voice-based searches will yield one result instead of the top seven google results on a single page.  So how do advertisers become that one search response?  Then consider that Search queries themselves will be longer and more question-like, since humans tend to speak in full sentences.  The attached AdWeek link breaks down the concerns of and consequences to the Search sector as we enter the Age of Voice.  Fascinating stuff to think about.

PROOF OF SECOND SCREENING:  Second screening is TV’s dirty little secret that we’re all guilty of.  When we’re sitting on the couch watching a show and a commercial break comes on we immediately start using our mobile phones.  This is, of course, a problem since TV advertisers are paying big money for ads we’re not watching.  But the data behind how much second screening we’re doing has been anecdotal or observational at best, since it’s hard to track exactly how TV viewers are using their phones mid-show – until now.  According to the attached Recode article Facebook has started to compare platform usage by viewers of a particular show vs. a base group.  The images below tell a very clear story.  The first graphic is FB’s usage by viewers of a measured show by the minute.  Those medium blue usage spikes coincide with the commercial breaks.  Compare that to the second graph of FB users who weren’t watching the show.  FB time (which is definitely second screening), doubles or even triples during the breaks.  This creates a silent but deadly audience attrition which would never show up in Nielsen’s TV ratings.

MILLENNIALS MARKETING FAILS:  Over the past decade there have been countless articles about the importance of marketing to Millennials.  But we don’t often hear of what not to do through brands’ failed attempts.  That’s why the attached  AdWeek article is so refreshing.  In it the author dissects five campaigns in which the brands simply tried too hard to connect with this generation, and ended up having their marketing attempts backfire.  My fav is the response to Hillary Clinton’s “3 emjoi” Twitter campaign – once you read the article the image below will have you smirking.  The take away from these cautionary tales is obvious.  Millennials, above all previous generation, know when brands are being fake.  So they’ll see through attempts to overtly covet them by trying to fit in with cliché stereotypes, and when brands become something that isn’t genuine.  Sometimes just being real is the best approach.

Have a great Monday and stay safe during the eclipse!

IF YOU CAN’T BEAT ‘EM, BUY ‘EM:  At first glance Walmart is getting it’s eCommerce clock cleaned by Amazon.  Like all B&M retailers, Walmart’s core business is under attack by consumers’ behavioral shift towards digital, and only 10% of Walmart’s in-store shoppers also buy online.  But that’s not the whole story.  Behind the scenes Walmart is investing heavily in eCommere, as noted in the attached Digiday article.  Everyone knows about Walmart’s 2016 acquisition of Jet.com for $4B.  But did you also know they’ve acquired Bonobos, Moosejaw, and several other niche eTailers.  Through these acquisitions Walmart’s eCommerce rev is +63% ytd – not too shabby!  And beyond the immediate revenue benefit, Walmart is absorbing code-writing engineers, tech proficiencies, and consumers’ purchase data across several different retail touch points.  So while Amazon is currently getting all the headlines as the Retail category killer, Walmart keeps gobbling up the smaller fish in Amazon’s digital pond.  Better not go to sleep on these guys!

RATINGS DEFLATE-GATE?:  If it’s mid-August it must be just about time for America’s top TV tradition . . . football.  But even the mighty NFL isn’t immune to the decline in TV viewership that’s being felt across the entire industry.  Last year live game ratings fell 8% vs. the previous year, mostly because people are spending less time sitting in front of TVs in general.  That trend appears to be continuing into 2017-18, according to the attached Variety link.  For a year-over-year comparison check out the table below. You’ll see the aggregate C3 ratings estimates for 2017-18 next to the 2016-17 C3 numbers.  All in, agencies are expecting the NFL’s ratings to drop about 20%.  Granted these are just estimates, but it speaks to a broader trend.  If King Football is on the long and steady road of TV ratings decline, what does that say about the rest of the lesser network shows out there?

HOUSTON, WE STILL HAVE AN ATTRIBUTION PROBLEM:  Finally today, I’d like to leave you with solid bird’s eye perspective on the marketing challenge of attribution.  As you know, Last Click Attribution remains the industry standard despite its obvious flaws.  Here’s a simple example of the problem – if you visit Cars.com and click on a Ford F150, then connect with the dealership and eventually buy the truck, Cars.com will get full attribution credit for selling the vehicle.  Obviously you’d have heard of Ford before going on the site (through decades of branding), probably had your mind set on an F150 (with call-to-action advertising), and maybe did a little online research (searched the internet), before you found the specific truck you wanted on Cars.com.  So how can marketers track and give credit to all of these channels through Multi-touch Attribution?  That’s the challenge addressed in the attached Digiday link.  What’s really cool about this article is that it touches broadly on factors that affect Multi-touch like Data Lakes, Walled Gardens, etc..  So it’s a great fresher on all things attribution.

Have a great Friday (and weekend) guys!