THE VULTURES ARE BEGINNING TO CIRCLE: As I previewed in a post on April 13th, we’re starting to see the beginning of the end for iHeart. The first tangible sign came in the form of a disclosure within iHeart’s Q1 earnings report, in which they reported a -3% decline in revenue against at +3% increase in operating expenses (never a good combo). In the disclosure iHeart stated “substantial doubt as to our ability to continue as a going concern for a period of 12 months following the date the first quarter 2017 financial statements are issued”. This problem, of course, is debt their which stands at $20.5B. A few weeks ago they made an unsuccessful attempt to convince creditors to restructure a chunk of their notes at 9% interest to more favorable terms. Without that relief iHeart now faces the very real possibility of defaulting on some upcoming notes. As you’ll see in the attached Marketwatch story, Wall Street insiders are anticipating Chapter 11. I would say bankruptcy is starting to look more like a “when” and not an “if” for iHeart.
MERLIN FOLLOWS UMG IN NEW RELEASE “GATING” ON SPOTIFY: Last month Universal Music Group became the first major label to reach a long-term licensing deal with Spotify by forcing a “gating” window on new releases which would only be available on the subscription tier. Now Merlin, the entity which represents thousands of independent artists and smaller labels, has followed UMG by agreeing to similar licensing terms with Spotify. I’m guessing the remaining two majors, Sony and Warner, will also ink similar deals setting up a system in which new music is held on the paid side of Spotify before eventually being released to the free ad-supported side. This will give artists/labels guaranteed royalty payouts when a new release is listened to. It will also water down Spotify’s free offering. I’m wondering if this will incentivize more listeners to buy a subscription or flee the service altogether.
THE CHATBOTS ARE COMING: Since 2014 Amazon has been pushing relentlessly into the forefront of voice-enablement technology. The centerpiece of their platform is Echo and the embedded Alexa voice activated interface system. Now Amazon is taking things one step further with the roll out of new in-app Chatbot technology which can run on any IoT device. Think about what this would look like . . . an Alexa 2.0ish virtual assistant you can interact with by voice, on just about any smart device you own. If you’ve seen the movie “Why Him?” think of the voice assistant Justine. Here’s a funny (but racy) YouTube clip from the movie to better explain. This advancement would accelerate Voice (Audio) supplanting Touch (Visual) as the primary input method of the connected world.
Have a great Monday guys!
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